Roma vs AC Milan Odds & Best Bet

Olivier Giroud celebrates, AC Milan

AC Milan’s Olivier Giroud c celebrates after scoring his side’s first goal during a Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Torino, at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Tuesday, Oct.26, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

  • Roma and AC Milan matchup in Italy’s capital on Sunday, October, 31st
  • Milan is one of just two unbeaten teams in Serie A heading into Matchday 11
  • Read below for the latest Roma vs Milan odds, statistics and a preview

With Milan in second and Roma in fourth ahead of Matchday 11, two of Serie A’s biggest clubs duel at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, October, 31st. This match will have early implications on the title and top four races, with Milan pursuing Napoli at the summit. Roma might be fourth, but they are just four points clear of Fiorentina in eighth.

The hosts are favored for this clash with a +135 moneyline price at DraftKings. That’s despite only one win in their last four home meetings with Milan. The Rossoneri have won two of their last three matchups with Roma.

Over 2.5 has hit in five of Milan’s 10 Serie A matches this term and six of Roma’s 10 outings so far. The hosts have seen under 2.5 total goals in three of their last four, however.

Roma vs Milan Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Roma vs Milan ROM -0.5 (+135) | ACM +0.5 (-150) ROM +135 | ACM +215 | DRAW +240 Ov 2.5 (-130) | Un 2.5 (+110)

Odds as of Oct 30 at DraftKings

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Roma, Milan Midfields Face Tall Tasks

Jose Mourinho is expected to name an unchanged XI with Chris Smalling and Leonardo Spinazzola still sidelined. There are more decisions to make on the other side of this clash with Stefano Pioli likely to rotate. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Simon Kjaer should return to the starting lineup after sitting out in midweek, while there’s uncertainty over the availability of Ante Rebic.

Rebic is a useful option off the bench if he’s available. The Croatian provides impetus and a threat in behind, which is particularly important with Ibrahimovic or Olivier Giroud leading the line. After missing the wins over Bologna and Torino, Theo Hernandez and Brahim Diaz are in line to return to the eleven.

Both midfields will have a lot of work to do on Sunday. Ismael Bennacer and Sandro Tonali have a key responsibility to protect Milan from Roma on the break. Jordan Veretout, Bryan Cristante and Lorenzo Pellegrini will need to be extremely disciplined to limit the space for Diaz in between the lines.

Milan’s Red Hot Domestic Start

While they have suffered three straight defeats in the Champions League, Milan have got off to a flying start domestically. Their win over Torino in midweek made it 10 matches unbeaten to start the season with just one draw in that period. Only Inter have scored more goals, and only Napoli have conceded fewer.

It’s been an adventure on the road for the Rossoneri, though. They are still getting results, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last four Serie A matches away from San Siro. They needed two late goals to beat the nine-men of Bologna last weekend.

In typical Mourinho fashion, Roma will look to absorb pressure and attack in transition on Sunday. Milan’s defense will need to be more secure than it has been of late.

Roma vs Milan Serie A Statistics

18 Goals scored 23
53.6% Average possession 54.7%
28 yellows, 2 reds Cards 17 yellows, 0 red
17.1 Shots per match 14.8
33.9 Progressive passes per 90 36.1
+0.73 Expected goal difference per 90 +0.81

Value on Visiting Milan

Milan are second in expected goal difference per 90 with Roma closely trailing in third. The visitors have been on a hot finishing streak to start the season, but the fundamentals of Pioli’s side are very strong.

Their defense is rock solid, and there’s a clear plan in possession whether Giroud or Ibrahimovic start up front. Diaz, Rafael Leao and Alexis Saelemaekers provide creativity behind the striker, and they should be able to generate enough chances against this Roma defense.

Roma’s win over Cagliari will have helped to restore some confidence, but there are already signs of trouble under Mourinho. They have won just one of their last four, and the former Real Madrid manager publicly called out his players.

Unbeaten in the league so far this season, Milan to win straight up looks a value bet. You could even play it safe with AC Milan double chance at -150.

Pick: Milan moneyline (+215)

Sam Cox

Sports Writer