Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields watches during the second half of the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game against Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. Fields is a likely first round pick in the NFL Draft, April 29-May 1, 2021, in Cleveland.(AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)
- There are prop bets offering odds on which players will be selected in the top five and top 10 of the 2021 NFL Draft
- Which players should you bet and which should you avoid come Thursday night?
- See the odds for a multitude of top prospects to go early on Thursday night below
The NFL Draft is the night when dreams come true for the stars of college football. It’s the gridiron version of a fairy tale existence, although for some, that fairy tale will turn out to be grim.
Every draft, there are players who blast off like a rocket ship up the rankings and are selected much earlier than expected. Then there are those who make like Humpty Dumpty and take a great fall despite holding solid NFL Draft odds.
Which players fall into each of these categories is knowledge worth knowing when it comes to prop wagers on those most likely to be selected in the top five and top 10 selections on draft night.
2021 NFL Draft Odds
|Player||Top Five Odds||Top 10 Odds at DraftKings|
|Patrick Surtain II||+800||-200|
|Greg Newsome II||OFF||+2000|
|Terrace Marshall Jr||OFF||+2200|
Odds as of April 27th
The first round of the NFL Draft is slated for Thursday, April 29th. It gets underway at 8pm ET and is being broadcast by ESPN.
NFL Draft Promo at DraftKings Offers Insane 100-1 Odds on a QB Being Taken 1st Overall
Who Should Be In Your Five?
It’s basically a given that two quarterbacks – Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson – are going 1-2 in the draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars will select Lawrence and the New York Jets will follow by taking Wilson. That’s why you can’t get odds on either of them in these props.
After that, though, things are going to get interesting. It’s virtually a certainty that the San Francisco 49ers are also taking a QB at #3. They traded up to get this pick from the Miami Dolphins and teams don’t trade up this early in the draft order so they can select an offensive tackle or cornerback. They’re seeking a difference-maker, a player to build their franchise around.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) April 21, 2021
Who is that guy? Good question. The consensus seems to be that it’s going to be Alabama’s Mac Jones, although there are some mock drafts slotting Ohio State’s Justin Fields in at third overall. Fields certainly offers more value at odds of +100, but we’ll talk about him later.
Florida Gators tight end Kyle Pitts in penciled in going to the Atlanta Falcons at #4 in nine out of every 10 mock drafts.
Someone who’s consistently found in the top five of the vast majority of NFL mock drafts is Oregon Ducks left tackle Penei Sewell. The Cincinnati Bengals are picking at #5 and Sewell definitely addresses a need for them. Cincy’s franchise player, QB Joe Burrow, the 2020 #1 overall pick, blew out his knee last season. They’ll want to protect the franchise and Sewell can do that.
- Top Five Pick: Penei Sewell (+110)
Avoid These Guys
Fields’ dreams could rapidly turn into a nightmare. If he doesn’t go at #3 to San Fran, he’s going to slide a long way. At his betting line, it’s tempting to play Fields among the top five, but don’t board that train. After Washington’s experience with Dwayne Haskins, it’s possible NFL teams may be wary of taking another Ohio State QB.
Trey Lance looks like the actor playing Patrick Mahomes in a movie about Alex Smith pic.twitter.com/hCa18HLJli
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) April 27, 2021
North Dakota State’s Trey Lance is the other QB that offers intrigue entering the draft. He may actually have more long-term upside than Jones or Fields, but teams don’t select projects in the top five. At -167, Lance is overvalued.
The same argument can be made about LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. He’s got a chance to be in the top five, but he’s not worth a play at -167.
It’s not a draft rich in high-end defensive playmakers, but some teams still need to shore up the defensive side of the ball. That’s going to create a market for Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons to slide up into the top 10.
Mock drafts are split about 50-50 on whether Parsons will go top 10. At +120, it’s worth the roll of the dice.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) April 24, 2021
Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith is another with an outside chance of top-10 status. There are a few teams in the six-ten slots that need help at wideout. Take the Alabama wide receiver at odds of +110.
- Top 10 Picks: DeVonta Smith (+110), Micah Parsons (+120)
Stay Away From These Dudes
There’s a lot of love for Smith’s Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle to go top 10. He’s given a betting line of -112.
It’s misplaced fondness. The Crimson Tide wideout is more likely to go somewhere in the 11-15 slots.
Jaylen Waddle is a BIG TIME playmaker?
— PFF (@PFF) April 27, 2021
South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn’s stock absolutely jumped after Horn posted some awe-inspiring numbers in testing during his pro day. He’s sitting there at +110 and like the last donut in the box, it looks ever so tempting to take that bite.
Stay on your diet. Horn simply isn’t a top-10 candidate. He’ll be close, though, probably around #12 to the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly’s secondary is in desperate need of an upgrade.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.