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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 Masters DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots » DFS Karma

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Augusta National Golf Club

  • Par 72, 7475 yards
  • Fairways: Bermuda
  • Rough: Rye and Bluegrass
  • Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)
  • Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
  • Water Hazards: 6
  • Field: 93 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties
  • 18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)
  • Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5
  • Par 5 Scoring Key with nearly 40% of DK points coming from Par 5s and all playing under par
  • Course Comps: Riviera CC (Genesis Invitational), Kapalua (ToC), Club de Chapultepec (WGC Mexico), GC of Houston (Houston Open)

Course and Weather Notes: I would make sure to stay up to date on the weather as it doesn’t appear as of now to show a distinct wave advantage, but there could be some bad weather all or part of the day on Friday… we don’t need an extensive course preview here as 1) everyone and their mom already has one, 2) I’ve done multiple versions in the past, and 3) if you haven’t seen guys play Augusta then you’re just way behind already… IT’S THE MF MASTERS AND THE 2ND SINCE LAST NOVEMBER!!!!! The cliff notes version is to weight course history heavily as there are no greens books here so guys who haven’t played before can struggle with how they run, how the balls run off, and where to miss; this is a 2nd short course, with the average finishing position of the leader in SG: APP for the week (per Justin Ray) at 1.8 over the last 5 years… favor the bombers, favor the elite long iron players, and make sure they can putt on Fast/Bentgrass greens because although no official stimp, these greens are LIGHTNING! Good luck this week and come join us in Discord for core plays and any and all chatter pre-tournament!

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
  • SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
  • SG: Putting (emphasis on FAST greens/Bentgrass)
  • Masters Course History
  • SG: T2G
  • GIRs Gained
  • BoB Gained
  • SG: ARG

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,600) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 1st SG: APP/49th SG: OTT/47th SG: P/8th T2G/25th GIRs/2nd BoB/17th SG: ARG

Form: 42nd/1st/15th/MC/13th/MC

Masters History: 4th/12th/17th/22nd/39th

Notes: Besides one blip at the Genesis where JT couldn’t recover from a terrible R1, he’s made all other cuts since July 2020 with 2 wins, 4 T5s (including at Augusta in Nov. 2020), and 7 other T25s or better; I like to see that he’s improved every year at Augusta, his best putting surface is Bentgrass, and he’s gained on APP and T2G in 16 of his last 17 tournaments… will be chalky and a heavy favorite but for very good reason

2) Webb Simpson ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 42nd SG: APP/39th SG: OTT/6th SG: P/32nd T2G/43rd GIRs/38th BoB/12th SG: ARG

Form: 28th/MC/6th/42nd/4th

Masters History: 10th/5th/20th/MC/29th/28th/MC/MC/44th

Notes: I think Webb is going semi under the radar as he’s surrounded by a lot of studs and hasn’t played as many recent tournaments as other studs; however, his form is fine, he has 3 straight T20s or better at Augusta and before the PLAYERS he had made 14 straight cuts; one of the better putters on TOUR and seems underpriced as the 9th ranked player in the world but only 14th most expensive player on DK

Fades

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,200) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 14th SG: APP/22nd SG: OTT/65th SG: P/24th T2G/35th GIRs/11th BoB/48th SG: ARG

Form: 28th/MC/10th/6th/MC/13th/16th/3rd

Masters History: 5th/21st/5th/7th/10th/4th/8th/25th/40th/15th

Notes: This fade feels semi-foolish and risky given that Rory has the best weighted course history in the field but as he continues (per his interviews) to change his swing, he doesn’t seem completely worth this price right now; with his talent, he of course can win anywhere and he hasn’t been in “bad” form, but he has looked inconsistent, and I would rather take what I believe are better options around him

2) Xander Schauffele ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 15th SG: APP/28th SG: OTT/32nd SG: P/31st T2G/22nd GIRs/17th BoB/38th SG: ARG

Form: 18th/MC/39th/15th/2nd/2nd

Masters History: 17th/2nd/50th

Notes: Overpriced as someone who’s always popular and was on a great run of finishes a few months ago but finished T39 at WGC Mexico followed by a MC at the PLAYERS; has lost strokes OTT in 2 of his last 3, lost strokes putting in his last 2 and similar to Rory, I think there are better and cheaper options at a similar price point

Favorite Pivot

1) Brooks Koepka ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 12th SG: APP/19th SG: OTT/13th SG: P/11th T2G/5th GIRs/4th BoB/53rd SG: ARG

Form: 2nd/38th/1st/MC/MC

Masters History: 7th/2nd/11th/21st/33rd

Notes: Maybe one of the only times we won’t have mega-Brooks chalk at a major but it makes sense as yes he’s been playing this week but still a lot of questions surrounding his injury as he just had surgery very recently… I’ll take a risk in large field GPPs (and think he’s a good bet at 25/1) as he’s been one of the very best in terms of SG: Total at Augusta (6th best in the field over the last 5 editions) and similar to a guy like Patrick Reed, his current form is not as important as he just shows up for big events

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Daniel Berger ($8,500) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 21st SG: APP/7th SG: OTT/20th SG: P/15th T2G/12th GIRs/10th BoB/59th SG: ARG

Form: 18th/9th/35th/1st/MC/7th

Masters History: 32nd/27th/10th (last played here in 2018)

Notes: Berger deserves to be talked about with the top tier players as his form is great with 5/6 cuts made recently with a win, 2 T10s, and a T20, he’s gained in SG: OTT in 6 straight tournaments, gained on APP in 10 of his last 11 and has not missed a cut at Augusta in any of his 3 starts (finished T10 as a debutant in 2016); if he can mitigate the big numbers and chip on average with the field, I think he is very viable to win

2) Sergio Garcia ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 32nd SG: APP/15th SG: OTT/82nd SG: P/6th T2G/27th GIRs/37th BoB/25th SG: ARG

Form: 5th/9th/32nd/MC/12th/6th/47th

Masters History: MC/MC/1st/34th/17th/MC/8th/12th/35th

Notes: Great showing at the Match Play, has gained T2G in 5 straight tournaments, gained on APP in 3 straight and albeit a weak field, Sergio did pick up a win last October; I think 2 straight MC at Augusta may scare some people off but as a former winner he clearly gets how to play the course and as long as the putter isn’t a disaster, his elite ball striking makes him a great value at this price

3) Paul Casey ($7,700) Projected Ownership: 24%

Key Stats: 3rd SG: APP/42nd SG: OTT/29th SG: P/12th T2G/10th GIRs/28th BoB/19th SG: ARG

Form: 28th/5th/10th/5th/12th/1st/8th

Masters History: 38th/MC/15th/6th/4th/6th/MC/38th

Notes: A chalk Casey has burned many, including myself, many times before but his form is superb right now with 7 straight made cuts that includes 4 straight T10 finishes or better to go along with 5 of his last 6 cuts made at Augusta (including a T6/T4/T6/T15 in 4 of those years); Casey’s best putting surface is Bent, and despite being very popular, he’s much too cheap and a cash/single entry staple for me

4) Max Homa ($7,100) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 11th SG: APP/29th SG: OTT/26th SG: P/26th T2G/32nd GIRs/18th BoB/33rd SG: ARG

Form: 18th/MC/10th/22nd/1st/7th/42nd/18th/21st

Masters History: MC

Notes: One of my favorite lower owned/low 7k plays of the week as he rates out great per course comps (won Genesis in February), made 8 straight cuts before a MC at the PLAYERS that included a win and 6 other T25 finishes or better, and can very hot if the putter is working; Homa has limited experience with only 1 start at Augusta, but he’s still seen the course and he rates out 33rd or better in all 7 stat categories that I’m weighing this week

Fades

1) Viktor Hovland ($8,700) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 8th SG: APP/3rd SG: OTT/35th SG: P/10th T2G/15th GIRs/3rd BoB/69th (nice) SG: ARG

Form: 42nd/MC/49th/2nd/5th/6th/2nd

Masters History: 32nd (2019)

Notes: Hovland’s stats are strong but 1) I can’t play everyone and 2) his last 2 tournaments have been a little suspect with lost strokes on APP in both and despite improvement in his ARG game, he’s lost strokes in that category in his last 5 of 6 tournaments, a huge red flag for Augusta; I think Hovland can still do well with how well he scores on Par 5s and his birdie making upside, but I’ll pivot to others around him as he feels expensive with only 1 Augusta start under his belt

2) Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 28th SG: APP/6th SG: OTT/21st SG: P/19th T2G/8th GIRs/24th BoB/63rd SG: ARG

Form: 18th/25th/29th/28th/43rd/2nd

Masters History: MC (2018)

Notes: I get the love for Niemann, and I love him long term, but at his price, I prefer the likes of Ancer or Louis and don’t love Niemann’s ARG game as his putting can be volatile and long term, he loses strokes to the field (on average) ARG; he’s elite OTT, elite on APP so I don’t think he’s a “bad” play, but I could see him being sneaky higher owned and I am fine pivoting to other strong plays in this price range

Favorite Pivot

1) Adam Scott ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 45th SG: APP/68th SG: OTT/28th SG: P/48th T2G/44th GIRs/26th BoB/43rd SG: ARG

Form: 13th/48th/54th/38th/10th/41st

Masters History: 34th/18th/32nd/9th/42nd/38th/14th/1st/8th/2nd

Notes: Scott hasn’t had the uber consistent ball-striking that we expect from him; however, he’s been putting well and has now gained on APP in his last 2 starts, including over 7 strokes gained on APP at the Honda and over 10 strokes gained T2G; despite not having his best stuff, he’s still made 13 cuts in a row, has amazing Augusta history with a made cut in every edition since 2010 that includes a win, 3 T10s or better and his price is just too cheap given his OTT/APP game combined with his experience

OTHERS I LIKE:

Louis Oosthuizen – Per Justin Ray (follow him on Twitter), the only player that has gained more strokes on APP per round at Augusta over the last 5 events is Jordan Spieth… ranks 25th BoB, 16th SG ? on Bent/Fast greens, and 6th in SG: ARG

Jason Day – Too cheap given his long-term talent; ranks 17th T2G, 10th SG: OTT, 8th SG: ARG and one of the best overall short games of anyone; made 8 out of last 10 cuts at Augusta with 3 T5s or better, a T10, and 3 T22 or better in that span

Abraham Ancer – Only played here once, but finished T13 in 2020 and per his current form, he’s riding 4 straight T23 or better finishes which is more than acceptable at this price; ranks 20th in the field T2G, 24th SG: APP, 25th SG: OTT, and 18th in GIRs Gained; has gained on APP in 9 straight events and OTT in 7 of his last 9

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Corey Conners ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 18%

Quick Hits: Will probably be Top 5 in OWN% but he’s too cheap given the form he’s in and how he’ll rate out in any stat model… 5th T2G, 10th SG: APP, 12th SG: OTT, 14th BoB, 6th GIRs and has made his last 5/6 cuts with 2 Top 20s, a T7 and a T3 in that span… putter has looked much improved from his last 1-2 years as well

2) Brian Harman ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: His lack of distance is the only reason I’m not more in on Harman, but he has made every cut since the OHL Classic in Nov. 2020, has gained in SG: OTT in his last 7 of 8 tournaments, gained T2G in 7 of his last 8 and I like his strong short game to help him counteract his lack of distance; not a TON, but does have experience with 2 starts at Augusta

3) Ian Poulter ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Similar to Harman, not a big driver of the ball, but has a lot of consistent success at Augusta, making 8 of his last 9 cuts here that includes 3 T25s or better, a T6, and a T7; Top 40 in the field in SG: OTT, SG: P on Fast/Bentgrass greens, and GIRs Gained

4) Ryan Palmer ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 9%

Quick Hits: Has more distance than the casual fan would realize, is playing some of the best golf of his career, and ranks Top 30 in the field in SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: OTT, and BoB; his short game can be his downside but he’s made 10 cuts in a row (made all cuts since 2020 US Open) with 3 straight T17 finishes and while he hasn’t played Augusta since 2015, he does have 3 total starts here with 2 made cuts than includes a T10 in 2011

5) Bernd Wiesberger ($6,400) Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: This is more of a “Top 50 OWGR” play who’s cheap as Bernd plays predominantly on the Euro Tour but has made all 5 cuts at Augusta, with two T25s, and is Top in the field in SG: ARG/Scrambling; will never pop in a stat model but he has gained T2G and on APP in 3 straight tournaments

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Jordan Spieth

4) Sungjae Im

5) Daniel Berger

6) Sergio Garcia

7) Paul Casey

8) Abraham Ancer

9) Max Homa

10) Corey Conners

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 20% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 30% of my Course History Ranks

  1. Jon Rahm
  2. Jordan Spieth
  3. Paul Casey
  4. Brooks Koepka
  5. Tony Finau
  6. Rory McIlroy
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Dustin Johnson
  9. Bryson DeChambeau
  10. Sergio Garcia
  11. Patrick Cantlay
  12. Patrick Reed
  13. Cameron Smith
  14. Xander Schauffele
  15. Matthew Fitzpatrick
  16. Webb Simpson
  17. Daniel Berger
  18. Lee Westwood
  19. Scottie Scheffler
  20. Corey Conners

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Jordan Spieth

Justin Thomas

Bryson DeChambeau

Dustin Johnson

Jon Rahm

Patrick Cantlay

OAD Pivots

Daniel Berger

Webb Simpson

Hideki Matsuyama

Corey Conners

Abraham Ancer

Hideki Matsuyama